For any of you that are private pilots or are thinking of
becoming a private pilot.

Received from a retired USCG aviator:

178 Seconds to Live

How long can a pilot who has little or no instrument training
expect to live after he flies into bad weather and loses visual
contact? Researchers at the University of Illinois did some tests
and came up with some very interesting data.

Twenty student "guinea pigs" flew into simulated instrument
weather, and all went into graveyard spirals or rollercoasters [a
tribute to the U of I flight training program??]. The outcome
differed in only one respect - the time required till control was
lost. The interval ranged from 480 seconds to 20 seconds. The
average time was 178 seconds -- two seconds short of three
minutes.

Here's the fatal scenario. . . . . . .

The sky is overcast and the visibility is poor. That reported
five mile visibility looks more like two, and you can't judge the
height of the overcast. Your altimeter tells you that you are at
1500 feet but your map tells you that there's local terrain as
high as 1200 feet. There might be a tower nearby because you're
not sure how far off course you are. But you've flown into worse
weather than this, so press on.

You find yourself unconsciously easing back just a bit on the
controls to clear those towers. With no warning, you're in the
soup. You peer so hard into the milky white mist that your eyes
hurt. You fight the feeling in your stomach. You try to swallow,
only to find your mouth dry. Now you realize you should have
waited for better weather. The appointment was important, but not
all that important. Somewhere a voice is saying, "You've had it
-- it's all over!"

You now have 178 seconds to live.

Your aircraft feels on even keel but your compass turns slowly.
You push a little rudder and add a little pressure on the
controls to stop the turn but this feels unnatural and you return
the controls to their original position. This feels better but
now your compass is turning a little faster and your airspeed is
increasing slightly. You scan your instruments for help but what
you see looks somewhat unfamiliar. You're sure that this is just
a bad spot. You'll break out in a few minutes. (But you don't
have a few minutes left..)

You now have 100 seconds to live.

You glance at your altimeter and you are shocked to see it
unwinding. You're already down to 1200 feet. Instinctively, you
pull back on the controls but the altimeter still unwinds. The
engine is into the red and the airspeed, nearly so.

You have 45 seconds to live.

Now you're sweating and shaking. There must be something wrong
with the controls; pulling back only moves the airspeed indicator
further into the red. You can hear the wind tearing at the
aircraft.

You are about to meet your Maker; you have 10 seconds to live.

Suddenly you see the ground. The trees rush up at you. You can
see the horizon if you turn your head far enough but it's at a
weird angle -- you're almost inverted. You open your mouth to
scream but you just ran out of seconds.

Think about it before you press on into marginal weather.